Climate disinformation | Toolkit Facta

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The scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change – the percentage of scientists agreeing on its existence and causes – is nearly 100%. Studies using various methodologies have demonstrated this broad agreement. The most recent of these studies indicate a level of consensus that effectively amounts to unanimity among the scientific community, particularly within the fields of climate and atmospheric sciences.

Nonetheless, public discussions continue to feature positions and claims that not only fail to reflect this scientific consensus but actively challenge it, denying its existence and creating the false impression that experts remain divided. Climate change deniers, those who reject the reality of human-caused climate change, have long sought to create the illusion of ongoing scientific debate. They emphasize scientific uncertainty to suggest that the evidence is insufficient or inconclusive. Others argue that global warming will bring benefits or defend fossil fuels – the primary cause of global warming – by attacking policies aimed at reducing or eliminating their use as dangerous and economically damaging.

Disinformation about climate science is, therefore, one of the main weapons used by those who seek to deny the reality and severity of this issue.

Techniques of climate disinformation

Climate disinformation employs a variety of arguments and rhetorical tactics. Studies have categorized denialist claims into three main types: arguments denying the existence of the problem itself (“global warming is not happening”), those disputing its attribution (“humans are not causing global warming”), and those minimizing its impact (“the effects of global warming are not severe”).

Additional arguments include attacks on the integrity of scientists and criticism of possible solutions such as renewable energy and electric vehicles. Climate disinformation often takes on a conspiratorial tone, linking climate issues to alleged global schemes orchestrated by organizations, international bodies, or well-known figures already targeted by other conspiracy theories, such as Bill Gates, George Soros, or activist Greta Thunberg.

A notable example of conspiratorial climate narratives emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic, when social media propagated the idea of “climate lockdowns”. According to this narrative, global elites planned to exploit climate change as a pretext to restrict individual freedoms, framing pandemic-related restrictions as a preview of future limitations.

Climate disinformation frequently uses distorted, manipulated, or out-of-context images and graphs. It misrepresents or selectively interprets data from scientific institutions, such as temperature trends in specific locations or the extent of ice coverage.

In recent years, there has been a surge of climate misinformation following natural disasters caused by extreme weather events. This disinformation seeks to “normalize” such events, preemptively dismissing any potential connection to climate change.

A recurring figure in climate disinformation is the “fake expert” or pseudo-expert. These individuals publicly voice opinions on climate change that contradict the scientific consensus, yet they typically lack specific expertise in climate science. However, they may boast academic credentials or hold positions in unrelated scientific fields, lending them credibility in the eyes of the general public. There is a stark discrepancy between the media visibility of these “dissenting experts” and their presence in scientific literature. These individuals rarely publish their claims in peer-reviewed journals. Instead, they rely on interviews, opinion pieces, television programs, or online petitions—methods far removed from the rigorous processes scientists use to present their findings to the scientific community. The few articles opposing the scientific consensus on climate change found in scientific literature are often published in less reputable journals and are subsequently criticized and debunked by experts.

Scientific evidence targeted by disinformation

As noted, climate disinformation targets nearly all aspects of climate science. One recurring theme concerns the causes of global warming, specifically human activities such as greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel use, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2). Deniers have often pointed to alternative explanations, such as the Sun or volcanic activity, but these claims contradict the evidence.

Science has firmly established the role of CO2 in recent global temperature increases. This is demonstrated by the physics of the greenhouse effect, which explains how gases like CO2 trap heat from solar radiation, accumulating it on Earth’s surface, in the air, and in the oceans. More greenhouse gases in the atmosphere mean more energy and heat.

We also know with certainty that greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing. Since the late 1950s, atmospheric CO2 levels have been measured directly, revealing a 50% increase since the Industrial Revolution, which began in the late 18th century when humans began intensively using fossil fuels.

Simultaneously, Earth’s average temperature has risen, another phenomenon measured directly. There is a clear temporal correlation between these two trends – increased greenhouse gases and rising global average temperatures – a correlation that also suggests causation.

Climatological research has shown that atmospheric CO2 has been one of the primary factors governing Earth’s climate throughout its history, acting as a kind of “control knob” that plays a central role in regulating climate variations.

Climate disinformation has also questioned the reliability of climate models and their ability to understand Earth’s climate system. However, climate models have proven highly reliable in understanding the climate and its evolution. Evaluations of climate models published since the 1970s show that their temperature projections have closely aligned with observed temperature increases over recent decades.